Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-6.5) vs Team Nemesis (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs Team Nemesis (+9.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-12.5) vs Team Nemesis (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
Team Nemesis have already beaten Infinite 2–1 in this qualifier cycle, which is the cleanest recent reference point for how the matchup has played out on the server.[6][5] That result also fits the broader statistical picture in the available previews: Nemesis were described as the stronger side on recent form, while Infinite were flagged for an inconsistent overall win rate and a poor head-to-head record against Nemesis.[3] In practical terms, a 0% crowd-implied chance for Team Nemesis is hard to square with those prior meetings and form indicators, even allowing for the volatility of a best-of-three.[2][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether the expected line-up sheets hold and whether the decider stage is played on schedule, because the market rules push non-played or indefinitely delayed matches to 50-50.[8] The most relevant recent match evidence is that Nemesis won the previous series with map pressure in veto and a completed decider on Inferno, so any last-minute change to map pool, roster, or replacement status would matter more than the headline form line.[6] Team lists published around the matchup showed players such as mag1k3Y, r3salt and Sdaim for Nemesis, and Blytz, Dytor and habibi for Infinite, but the available sources do not clearly confirm late substitutions or absences beyond those names.[4]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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