Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) | 91% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: JustP (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-9.5) vs SPARTA (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-6.5) vs SPARTA (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
SPARTA’s best guide to this match is recent Swiss-stage form rather than any long head-to-head history, because the teams have little established meeting data and are facing each other in a short online BO3. Liquipedia shows SPARTA at 1-0 in the NODWIN Clutch Series #10 group stage, while Just Players are 0-2 after two losses, which makes the 0% crowd-implied YES price look anchored more in current results than reputation.[3] Independent match pages also rate SPARTA as the stronger side on form and rankings, with Strafe listing SPARTA at #86 and Just Players at #116, and both teams on three wins from their last five matches.[2]
The main trader watchpoints are whether the scheduled start holds and whether either side posts last-minute roster or substitution news before veto. SPARTA have just come off a 2-0 win over BET-M in the same event, which supports the idea that their map pool and online execution are stable enough for a clean series if the same lineup is fielded again.[6][10] For Just Players, the key catalyst is whether their recent momentum carries over from qualifier and event play; if they arrive with the same core and avoid an early map deficit, the market can move quickly from a one-sided read to a more competitive one.[1] If the fixture is delayed, abandoned, or rescheduled beyond the market’s seven-day resolution window without a winner, the payout mechanics shift away from a straight team result to 50-50.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Just Players (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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