Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Atputies (+1.5) | 76% |
| Match Winner | 67% |
| Map 1 Winner | 62% |
| Map 2 Winner | 60% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
Market context
The Counter-Strike BO3 between Liquid and Atputies is priced with Liquid as a clear favourite, and the current 62% crowd-implied probability broadly fits that shape. Recent form data points the same way: Liquid arrive off a run that includes wins over Vitality and G2, while Atputies are described as winless across the recent month and carrying four losses in five matches into the event.[1][2]
The main historical frame is a mismatch in experience rather than a rich head-to-head record, because the teams have no recent meetings on record and this appears to be their first direct matchup.[1][4][8] That matters in BO3 markets because underdogs usually need either a strong map veto or a messy series to pull the price away from the favourite; Liquid’s better recent map profile on Mirage and Atputies’ reported fragility on deciders such as Ancient make a straight 2-0 or 2-1 Liquid result the cleaner read from the available stats.[1][4]
The trader catalysts are straightforward: final roster confirmation, any late substitution or illness news, and the veto order, especially whether Atputies can force Liquid off comfortable starting maps.[1][2] The market also carries standard settlement risk from event logistics, because if the match is postponed beyond seven days without a winner, or not played at all, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either side.[1]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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