Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 65% |
| Map 2 Winner | 62% |
| Map 1 Winner | 57% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 43% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 40% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) | 35% |
Market context
TYLOO and Lynn Vision meet in a lower bracket quarterfinal at the Esports World Cup on 14 August, with the Chinese organisations competing in a best-of-three format. The winner advances deeper into the tournament's Group C bracket, whilst the loser faces elimination. Both teams qualified through earlier stages and arrive at this fixture having navigated preliminary rounds in what remains a relatively young tournament by esports standards.
TYLOO enters as the marginal favourite at 57 per cent implied probability, reflecting their historical standing within Chinese Counter-Strike. The team has maintained roster stability through 2024 and 2025, with their core five remaining intact across multiple international events. Lynn Vision, by contrast, underwent a significant coaching restructure in early 2025 and has shown inconsistent results in online qualifiers leading into Esports World Cup play. Head-to-head records between these organisations favour TYLOO in recent matchups, though Lynn Vision has secured map wins in their last two encounters, suggesting the gap has narrowed.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability through 14 August, as both organisations have fielded substitute players in recent weeks due to visa complications affecting international travel. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, leaving minimal buffer for delays beyond the scheduled 18:00 UTC start time. Any postponement exceeding seven days without completion triggers a 50-50 resolution, a scenario that would significantly alter current pricing. Recent reports from esports journalists covering the tournament indicate both teams have completed their practice schedules without reported technical issues or roster changes.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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