Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: EAC (-1.5) vs XCLAN (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs XCLAN (+6.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs XCLAN (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs XCLAN (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs XCLAN (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
XCLAN’s Group A elimination match with Esport Academy Copenhagen is a best-of-three in Stake Pulse Beat I, and the 0% crowd price is only consistent with the fact that this is the weakest side of the market rather than a settled result. The public data is thin on XCLAN’s recent competitive record, but CS2Bet’s pre-match page shows the roster still unresolved and lists a modest three-month stat line, while Esport Academy Copenhagen’s broader match history points to an inconsistent academy side rather than a dominant one.[2][5][7]
That makes prior comparable cases important: academy teams in this tier can look volatile on a map-by-map basis, but they often retain enough structure to punish opponents if the veto lands well or if the underdog arrives with limited recent match practice. Esport Academy Copenhagen’s recorded history is close to break-even over a long sample, yet its recent tournament snapshots have included both short winning runs and heavier stretches of losses, which is the profile traders usually treat as fragile rather than reliable.[5][7][15][16]
The main catalysts are roster confirmation, veto shape, and whether either side has had a late schedule change before the 19:00 UTC settlement window. Sports.ru still listed the match as not started at 13:00 local time, so any further delay, cancellation, or abnormal scoreline state would matter as much as the match itself for resolution risk, while the market text also makes clear that a no-contest or unresolved delay beyond seven days would settle 50-50.[1][3]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: XCLAN vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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