Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Game Hunters (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Game Hunters (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Yawara Esports (-3.5) vs Game Hunters (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Yawara Esports (-6.5) vs Game Hunters (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Yawara Esports (-9.5) vs Game Hunters (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Yawara Esports (-9.5) vs Game Hunters (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Game Hunters (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Yawara Esports (-3.5) vs Game Hunters (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GH (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Yawara Esports (-6.5) vs Game Hunters (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
Yawara Esports and Game Hunters are set to play a Best of 3 Counter-Strike 2 match in the CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage, initially scheduled for 9:00 AM ET on 30 June. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for Yawara winning Round 2 is starkly contradicted by recent head-to-head data, where Yawara secured a decisive 2–0 victory just five days prior on 25 June in the same tournament series [2]. Historically, when a team wins a match 2–0 against the same opponent within a week, the probability of them losing the subsequent map 2 in a rematch rarely drops below 15%, as momentum and tactical familiarity heavily favour the victor [1]. This 0% pricing suggests a market inefficiency or a misunderstanding of the match timeline, as Yawara has won three of their last five matches overall, while Game Hunters have lost eight of their last ten [2].
Traders must monitor the official match stream on strafe.com, Twitch, and YouTube for the live resolution of this specific map 2 contest, which concluded at 12:59 PM ET on 30 June with Yawara winning the series 2–1 [2]. The key catalyst is the confirmation that the match was not cancelled or delayed beyond the seven-day window, which would force a 50–50 settlement [2]. Game Hunters won Map 1 on Ancient (13–5), but Yawara reclaimed the series by winning Map 2 on Mirage (16–14) and Map 3 on Dust II (13–10), with top fragger bsd recording 70 kills for Yawara [2]. The critical dependency is the verification of the result via HLTV and Gamers World, which already confirms Yawara as the winner of Map 2 [3]. No coaching changes or key absences have been reported for either side in the immediate lead-up to this fixture, making recent form the primary driver [5].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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