Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Game 2 Winner | 75% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 75% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Match Winner | 26% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) | 26% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
GLYPH and PlayTime meet in a best-of-three quarter-final at the Games of the Future playoffs, with the series already live on several tracking pages and scheduled around 05:00 UTC. The market’s 0% crowd-implied YES looks extreme against the public-facing match pages, which mostly treat this as a live and unresolved contest rather than a foregone conclusion.[7][8][10]
The form line is mixed but GLYPH have the cleaner recent run. Coverage around the event says GLYPH swept their group winners’ match, then beat Enjoy 2-0 in the group stage, while PlayTime also advanced through the playoffs but were described as fielding recent stand-ins Abed and Jabz alongside Wits, Scofield and elmisho; that kind of roster churn is the main reason to treat their ceiling and coordination cautiously.[3][15] Historical comparison also leans towards GLYPH: Strafe lists one prior meeting between the sides, won by GLYPH 2-1 in April, while other previews note GLYPH winning that earlier head-to-head and carrying stronger recent momentum into this series.[6][11]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether PlayTime’s line-up is the intended one at map start, whether the series begins on time, and whether any late bracket or schedule changes emerge from the tournament broadcaster or organiser feeds. If the match is delayed, abandoned, or pushed beyond the settlement window without a completed winner, the market can revert to 50-50 under the rules, so start-time confirmation matters as much as the in-game result.[2][7][8]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: GLYPH vs PlayTime (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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