Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
Market context
PARIVISION, the world’s number-one ranked Dota 2 team from the CIS region, faces European outfit MOUZ (ranked 14) in a decisive Best-of-2 Group C clash at the Esports World Cup 2026, with the match set to begin at 14:00 UTC on 10 July. PARIVISION has maintained a flawless 6-0 record through three group days, defeating REKONIX 2-0 in their latest outing, while MOUZ sits at 4-2 after a 1-1 draw with Team Nemesis and a 2-0 win over REKONIX earlier in the tournament [1][2].
Historically, 100% crowd-implied probabilities in live esports matches rarely hold when the underdog has already secured wins in the same group stage; MOUZ’s 2-0 start against REKONIX and their ability to force a draw against Team Spirit suggest they are not a pushover, even against a dominant PARIVISION [1][2]. In prior Esports World Cup group stages, teams with perfect records have occasionally faltered in final group matches when facing opponents who have already proven resilience, making the current certainty appear overstated relative to on-field form.
Traders should monitor the official match start confirmation at 14:00 UTC and any pre-match roster announcements, as PARIVISION’s perfect run could hinge on player availability following their intense Day 3 schedule [2]. The match is listed as Best of 2, meaning a 1-1 tie would trigger the market’s 50-50 settlement clause, a critical dependency given MOUZ’s demonstrated capacity to draw against top-tier opposition [3]. No coaching changes or key absences have been reported for either side as of the latest tournament updates [1].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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