Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 49% |
| Match Winner | 44% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Ends in Daytime | 8% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Team Jenz (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Team Jenz (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp face Team Jenz in a best-of-three Dota 2 fixture within the EPL Masters Play-In Group A bracket, scheduled for 22 July at 3:00 PM ET. The match determines advancement positioning within the play-in stage, where both squads compete for seeding into the main tournament phase. The 100% crowd probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in one team's superiority or substantial uncertainty about match completion itself—a critical distinction given the settlement rules permit a 50-50 resolution if the fixture extends beyond seven days without resolution.
Historical precedent in regional Dota 2 qualifying tournaments shows play-in matches rarely cancel outright, though scheduling delays occur with modest frequency when teams manage multiple competitions simultaneously. The seven-day grace period before forced 50-50 settlement creates a meaningful buffer for rescheduling, reducing the likelihood of that outcome unless both organisations face severe logistical constraints. Recent EPL Masters fixtures have proceeded on schedule, suggesting infrastructure stability.
Traders should monitor official EPL announcements regarding roster confirmations or coaching adjustments in the week preceding 22 July, as mid-tournament personnel changes occasionally surface in regional qualifying. Team Jenz's recent scrim results and PuckChamp's performance in preceding group matches will provide early signals about form trajectory. Any public statements from either organisation regarding player availability or technical concerns warrant immediate attention, as these frequently precede fixture delays. The settlement window closes 25 July at 16:00 UTC, allowing three days post-scheduled date for completion before the 50-50 threshold activates.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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