Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 26% |
| Ends in Daytime | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine face Vici Gaming in a best-of-three Group A winners’ match, and the market’s 0% YES implies little confidence in an upset. That is consistent with the pre-match picture: Vici are broadly priced as the stronger side, with higher world ranking and longer roster continuity, while Yellow Submarine have still shown usable form in recent results rather than arriving cold.[1][2][5]
The historical frame is a straightforward one. Both teams came into this event with mixed but positive-enough recent records, and the groups have already produced opposite outcomes for each side: Vici opened with a comeback win over Amaru Gaming, while Yellow Submarine swept Execration 2-0.[10] In comparable listing data, Vici have been treated as the favourite across venues, while Yellow Submarine have been the shorter team on ranking and experience metrics, so a zero-cent market is mainly a reflection of the gap in perceived baseline strength rather than any single result.[1][2][5]
For traders, the key catalysts are lineup confirmation and whether either side makes a late substitution or role swap, because the available pre-match reads note no reported roster changes and stable squads on both sides.[1][2] The other practical dependency is schedule integrity: this market only resolves cleanly if the match is played and completed, and it reverts to 50-50 if it is cancelled, tied, or left unresolved beyond the stated window. Any late event update, delay, or bracket revision would matter more than broad tournament narrative, because the market is set around one specific BO3 rather than extended group performance.[2][9][10]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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