Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Norway | 100% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway is underway at Dallas Stadium, with the contest entering its first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This specific fixture determines the halftime result market, where traders assess whether the outcome will be a home win, a draw, or an away win. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a Côte d'Ivoire (home) victory, reflecting a stark market consensus that the Ivorian side is unlikely to lead at the break.
Historical precedents in knockout-stage World Cup matches involving Scandinavian teams against African opponents often show a pattern where the European side establishes early control through structured midfield play. In comparable Group I fixtures earlier in this tournament, Norway recorded a 1-3 away loss to France at halftime, yet their defensive resilience against lower-ranked sides frequently yields away leads or draws. The 0% probability for a home win aligns with these trends, as Norway’s recent form, bolstered by Erling Haaland’s presence and Martin Ødegaard’s creative output, suggests they are the more likely team to dictate the tempo and secure an away advantage or draw by the 45-minute mark[1][2].
Traders should monitor live updates for Antonio Nusa’s goal-scoring activity and any tactical shifts from Norway’s manager following the 39th-minute breakthrough by Nusa, which already put the Scandinavians in a favourable position[1]. Key dependencies include potential stoppage-time adjustments, injury reports for Côte d'Ivoire’s key defenders, and the referee Jesús Valenzuez Sáez’s handling of stoppages, which could extend the effective halftime window. Recent beat-reporter coverage from The Athletic confirms Haaland’s starting role and Norway’s aggressive knockout-round strategy, reinforcing the market’s low confidence in a home lead[2]. Any late-minute defensive errors by Côte d'Ivoire or additional Norway goals before the break would further solidify the away or draw outcome.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Halftime Result. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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