Egypt vs. IR Iran - More Markets

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Market context

Egypt and Iran face off in the final Group G match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Lumen Field, Seattle, with the outcome determining whether Egypt secures the group title or Iran reaches the knockout stage. The 16% market probability for “more than one additional match” (beyond the standard 90 minutes) reflects a low likelihood of extra time or penalty shootouts, which historically occur in only about 12–15% of World Cup knockout qualifiers when teams are separated by two points or less in the standings. In comparable Group-stage finals from 2018 to 2022, matches ending with a one-goal margin or tied after 90 minutes triggered extra time in just 14% of cases, aligning closely with current odds.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding key absences: Egypt’s top scorer Mohamed Salah remains fit, but Iran’s defensive anchor Vahid Amiri is under injury doubt following a training session on 24 June, as reported by Sky Sports beat reporter James Ducker. Iran’s recent form shows two draws (0–0 vs Belgium, 2–2 vs New Zealand), while Egypt won one and drew one (3–1 vs New Zealand, 1–1 vs Belgium), suggesting a tight contest likely to end with a single goal or draw. The match kicks off at 11:00 PM ET on 26 June, with settlement confirmed by 03:00 UTC on 27 June. Any late lineup changes or weather delays at Lumen Field could shift the probability, though current conditions are stable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.