Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices a Scotland halftime victory at 0% implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in competitive pedigree between the two nations. Scotland qualified for the tournament via UEFA's playoff pathway and enters as a European side with established international infrastructure, whilst Haiti qualified through CONCACAF and has not appeared in a World Cup since 1974.

Historical precedent suggests early dominance by the stronger-ranked team is common in such fixtures. In comparable World Cup mismatches—lower-ranked sides facing established European nations—the favoured team typically establishes control within the opening 45 minutes. Scotland's recent qualifying campaign showed inconsistency but consistent ability to score first against weaker opposition. Haiti's defensive record in CONCACAF qualifying was fragile, conceding 1.8 goals per match on average. The 0% pricing reflects near-certainty that Scotland will either lead or draw at the interval.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the fortnight before the match, particularly regarding Scotland's squad availability and any late tactical shifts under their manager. Haiti's preparation schedule and any coaching announcements will signal their defensive approach. Weather conditions at the venue—temperature and humidity—may affect early-game intensity, though are unlikely to shift the fundamental imbalance. Pre-match odds from major sportsbooks typically offer calibration points for halftime markets, as professional bookmakers price these segments with granular precision based on historical scoring patterns.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.