IR Iran vs. New Zealand

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in a World Cup group stage match on 15 June 2026. The 51% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about a fixture between two sides with contrasting recent trajectories. Iran qualified for the tournament despite significant political and sporting sanctions, whilst New Zealand secured their place through the Oceania confederation playoffs, defeating Solomon Islands in February 2024. Both teams have limited recent competitive history at World Cup level; Iran's last appearance was 2018, where they finished bottom of their group, whilst New Zealand last competed in 2010.

The match outcome hinges on Iran's ability to field a competitive squad despite ongoing FIFA restrictions and the departure of several key players to European clubs. New Zealand's strength lies in their domestic cohesion and set-piece organisation under coach Danny Hay, though their limited exposure to elite opposition creates unpredictability. Iran's coach selection and final squad announcement—expected in late May 2026—will be critical; any further player departures or injury setbacks could shift the balance materially. New Zealand's preparation schedule and any late-stage friendlies will signal their readiness. The neutral venue and group composition remain unknown variables that could favour either side depending on fixture congestion and travel logistics.

Methodology

This page reviews IR Iran vs. New Zealand across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.