Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Norway will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 6:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 4% probability, reflecting the specificity required: any single scoreline from a 90-minute match must match precisely to settle YES. Historical World Cup data shows exact scores occur in roughly 8–12% of matches across all possible outcomes, meaning this particular result trades at a discount to base rates, suggesting either low confidence in this specific pairing or heavy concentration of probability mass on alternative scorelines.

Iraq's qualification for the 2026 tournament marked their second World Cup appearance, though their competitive record remains limited at the international level. Norway, conversely, failed to qualify—they did not reach the finals—so this match cannot occur as scheduled. The premise contains a factual error: Norway did not qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Any settlement of this market depends on clarification of whether the match will be rescheduled, cancelled, or whether the market description contains an error regarding the participating nations. Traders should await official FIFA confirmation of Iraq's actual group-stage opponents and fixture dates before committing capital, as the current listing may reflect outdated or incorrect tournament seeding information.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.