Japan vs. Sweden - Halftime Result

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Group F match between Japan and Sweden on 25 June 2026, where the first 45 minutes of play determine the halftime outcome. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 100% YES for a draw, reflecting the game’s actual first-half scoreline of 0–0, as confirmed by live updates and social reports from the Dallas Stadium fixture[5][7]. This result aligns with historical patterns in tightly contested World Cup group games where both sides prioritise defensive stability early; similar 0–0 first halves occurred in Japan’s 2018 opener against Colombia and Sweden’s 2018 match against South Korea, where neither team scored before stoppage time[1].

Traders should monitor post-match squad announcements and injury updates for both nations, particularly regarding Anthony Elanga, who scored Sweden’s equaliser in the second half, and Ayase Ueda, Japan’s breakout performer with a brace and assist in the same match[2][8]. Any absence of these key attackers could shift expectations for the second half, though the first 45 minutes remain settled as a draw. With the settlement window ending 23:00 UTC on 25 June, the outcome is already fixed, and no further dependencies exist beyond the official FIFA match report[3]. The 100% probability is not speculative but a factual reflection of the completed first half.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.