Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 83% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 72% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 70% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 55% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 32% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 24% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Mexico vs. England - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Mexico vs. England - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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