Senegal vs. Iraq

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This upcoming FIFA World Cup match sees Senegal face Iraq in Group I on Friday, 26 June 2026 at Toronto Stadium, with the crowd heavily favouring a Senegal victory at 80% probability. The 80% implied chance mirrors historical World Cup clashes where a top-20 ranked nation (Senegal sits at FIFA 15) meets a team outside the top 50 (Iraq at FIFA 57), particularly when the lower-ranked side has struggled in recent qualifiers without a significant tactical overhaul. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show similar probability bands when African powerhouses played Middle Eastern teams with limited World Cup exposure, often resulting in decisive wins for the higher-ranked side if key absences do not cripple their attack.

Traders must monitor final squad announcements for Senegal, specifically regarding the fitness of their primary striker and any defensive suspensions that could alter the line-up, as these factors directly impact the 1.5-goal spread favoured by bookmakers. Iraq’s recent form shows two consecutive losses in the group stage with no goals scored, suggesting a fragile defence that may collapse under Senegal’s pressure if their coach does not adjust the mid-field shape before kick-off. A recent preview from Whoscored highlights that Iraq’s missing players include two central defenders, a critical absences that could widen the margin of victory for Senegal if the African side maintains their current attacking intensity.

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Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.