Uzbekistan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Uzbekistan met Colombia in their 2026 World Cup opener, and Colombia won 3-1 in Mexico City, with second-half goals from Luis Díaz and Jáminton Campaz settling a game that was competitive for long spells.[1][5] That result makes the current crowd-implied **0% YES** look like a pricing of the return fixture or a reverse outcome rather than the match itself, because the teams have already played and Colombia have already recorded the win.[1][6]

For traders, the main frame is Colombia’s stronger recent World Cup showing and the margin of that opening victory, rather than any suggestion that Uzbekistan were overwhelmed throughout; ESPN’s match report says Colombia had the decisive second-half edge, while FIFA’s match-centre confirms the fixture is complete.[1][5] Comparable cases in tournament markets often move sharply once an early result lands, especially when one side has already banked three points and the other starts from a defeat, because later probabilities then depend more on fixture sequencing, group state and squad management than on the original pre-match narrative.[1][2]

The next catalysts are squad availability and any team-news around injuries, suspensions or rotation before the closing group matches, since Uzbekistan’s path and Colombia’s selection choices will hinge on tournament schedule rather than this completed game.[1][5] The practical watch-point is whether either federation issues updates on key absences or rest decisions, because those can alter market prices even when the headline scoreline is already fixed.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.