Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| KA Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| KA Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Thor Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Thor Akureyri 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| KA Akureyri (-1.5) | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri (-1.5) | 0% |
| KA Akureyri (-2.5) | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KA Akureyri 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Thor Akureyri 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
KA Akureyri and Thor Akureyri meet on 27 July in the Besta deild, Iceland's top football division, with the fixture scheduled for 15:15 ET. The 0% probability assigned to "More Markets" suggests the crowd expects no additional betting markets to be created for this match beyond those already live. This reflects either confidence in the current market suite or low anticipated trading volume for a mid-season domestic fixture between two mid-table sides.
Historical precedent shows that Icelandic domestic fixtures rarely generate supplementary markets unless one club carries significant European competition overlap or faces a crisis that triggers media attention. KA and Thor occupy similar competitive tiers; neither has qualified for European group stages in recent seasons, and both operate with modest fixture congestion. When additional markets do materialise for Besta deild matches, they typically follow injury announcements to key players or unexpected managerial changes announced within 48 hours of kick-off. The settlement window closing at 19:15 ET on match day allows only a narrow window for late-breaking developments to trigger new market creation.
Traders should monitor team news releases from both clubs through 26 July. Thor's recent form and squad availability will be critical; any suspension of a starting forward or goalkeeper confirmation could prompt the market operator to add player-specific or team-performance micro-markets. Icelandic football media, including outlets covering the Besta deild, typically publish final team sheets 24 hours before fixture time, providing the last opportunity for material information to surface before settlement.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for KA Akureyri vs. Thor Akureyri - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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