Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sam Ryan Ziegann and Isaac Becroft were due to meet in the ITF M15 Bali 2 event on outdoor hard courts, with rankings close enough to suggest a fairly even baseline on paper: SofaScore had Ziegann at ATP 919 and Becroft at ATP 910. They have no recorded head-to-head at professional level, which makes the current 0% YES price look more like a view on timing and market confidence than a clean read on matchup quality.[1][2]
Comparable recent results frame Becroft as the steadier hard-court performer in 2026. TennisTonic lists Becroft at 28-18 for the year, including 28-15 on hard courts, while Ziegann is 19-15 overall and 13-8 on hard courts, with his stronger spell coming earlier in the season rather than in a sustained run. That same source shows both men arriving off mixed but workable form, so in this sort of ITF match the market often hinges less on ranking gaps and more on whether the draw, fitness, and match load line up on the day.[5]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether the tie was completed on schedule, whether either player withdrew or was defaulted during the event, and whether the match status was updated as a cancellation, retirement, or walkover. Flashscore and SofaScore both listed the fixture as scheduled for 2 August 2026, while an Antara report from the same tournament cycle showed both players reaching later rounds in Bali, underlining how quickly ITF schedules can shift around results from earlier matches.[1][14]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for ITF Bali: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Isaac Becroft. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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