July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

July 2026 CPI will be judged on the 12-month change in the unadjusted Consumer Price Index when the BLS publishes the July report on 12 August. The market’s 2% yes price implies a very low chance of an unusually strong annual reading, so the key question is whether the latest run of softer monthly prints can keep the year-on-year rate contained through the summer.

That probability sits against a backdrop of inflation easing from a recent peak but still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. June CPI came in at 3.5% year on year after 4.2% in May, while core CPI slowed to 2.6%; Reuters reported that economists had expected 3.8% and 2.9% respectively, so the downside surprise has already reset some expectations lower.[13] Even so, several forecasters still see sticky underlying price pressure: the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasting tool pointed to July headline inflation around 3.32%, while Truflation and MUFG both projected the annual rate only in the high-3% area, with core inflation still near 2.8%-2.9%.[1][5][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the next monthly price inputs on goods, housing, and services, plus any tariff or supply-chain effects that could lift import-sensitive categories. Markets will also react to labour-market data and the BLS release itself, because a surprise in shelter or services inflation would change the path from June’s 3.5% base quickly; the current consensus from outside-house models remains that July should stay below the May spike, but not necessarily close to target.[12][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for July Inflation US - Annual. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.