Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
Market context
Karmine Corp Blue and TLN Pirates were due to meet in a single-game LFL regular-season fixture, and the live scoreline source already lists the match as 1-0 in Karmine Corp Blue’s favour. That alone makes the market’s 0% YES price hard to reconcile with the match page, because the available reporting points to Karmine Corp Blue having the stronger pre-match profile as well as the in-game edge.[1][6]
The broader form read also leans Karmine Corp Blue. Bo3’s match analytics describe KCB as having a higher overall win rate and stronger long-term results, although its recent half-year form had regressed from earlier season levels. By contrast, TLN Pirates were flagged as more stable in the nearer term, but with a poorer record against higher-ranked opposition and a previous 1-2 loss to Karmine Corp Blue in May, which is the most useful comparable case for judging this rematch.[1][2]
For traders, the main catalysts are simple: whether the match is officially completed, whether any schedule change pushes it past the settlement window, and whether either team publishes roster or substitution news before lock. KCB’s listed summer roster on market pages has centred on Tao, Yukino, Kamiloo, Looki and Prime, while TLN Pirates have been shown with Spooder, Stefan, Toffe, Axelent and Thomas, so any late absence or lane swap would matter more in a BO1 than in a series.[5][7]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs TLN Pirates (BO1) - LFL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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