LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Maryville University and Conviction were due to meet in the North American Challengers League playoffs in a best-of-three upper-bracket quarter-final, but the event status matters more than the headline pairing. The crowd-implied 0% yes price suggests the market is effectively treating this as already dead or non-advancing, which is a stark contrast with their earlier Spring meeting: Maryville beat Conviction 2-1 in March, a useful comparison only if the same line-ups are intact. Maryville also carried the stronger recent reputation in that split, while Conviction’s results were more volatile, so any actual edge would have rested on roster continuity rather than raw brand strength.

What traders should watch is whether Riot or the tournament operator has confirmed a new schedule, a forfeit, or a delayed replay inside the seven-day settlement window. The most relevant public indicator is the match listing itself: Sofascore still had Maryville vs Conviction marked for 20 May 2026 at 23:00 UTC, while GosuGamers and Liquipedia show the earlier Spring series as a completed 2-1 Maryville win. If there are last-minute roster changes, coaching swaps, or player absences, those are the catalysts that can move a delayed market from a dead 0% price towards a live side; absent that, the key question is simply whether a winner is ever formally recorded before 27 May.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.