Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Boston Red Sox face the Colorado Rockies in a single MLB game at Coors Field on 22 June 2026, with the Red Sox needing a win to resolve the market to “Boston Red Sox”. The crowd currently assigns a 46% chance to the Red Sox, implying a near-even contest despite Boston’s superior roster depth and a 29–41 record compared to Colorado’s 28–46[2].

Historically, the Red Sox have dominated this matchup: they swept the Rockies in a three-game set last season, outscoring them 29–7, and have won four of their last five starts against Colorado at Coors Field[3]. This pattern suggests the 46% probability may understate Boston’s edge, as comparable cases show the Red Sox typically clear 60%+ win rates in similar away fixtures against the Rockies[3].

Traders should monitor starting-pitching announcements, particularly Ryan Feltner’s status after returning from the injured list with a 3.86 ERA in four starts[3], and any late injury updates to key Red Sox hitters. A beat-reporter from MLB.com notes that offensive production and pitching matchups are the primary catalysts for this game’s outcome[4]. Watch for official lineup confirmations before the 8:40 PM ET start, as delays or changes could shift the implied probability significantly[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.