Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 83% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 74% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 63% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics | 61% |
| O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| NRFI | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Tigers and Athletics meet in a late-season game that has already shown a clear edge to Detroit in the recent head-to-head, with the Tigers winning the first three meetings of the season by scores of 6-2, 6-1 and 4-1.[7][10] That matters for reading a 61% crowd-implied Tigers chance: it sits in line with the way the matchup has played, but it is not an overwhelming number given that both clubs have spent much of the year around the .450 mark and the market is still pricing in meaningful upset risk.[3][13][16]
Recent form leans towards Detroit. ESPN’s pregame file had the Tigers at 5-5 over their last 10, but still ahead of the Athletics’ 3-7 stretch, while CBS noted the Athletics had lost five straight and nine of 10 after the clubs’ mid-July meetings.[3][2] The latest game between them was lopsided, with Detroit winning 13-1 on Thursday night, reinforcing the same one-sided pattern that has carried through the series.[1]
For traders, the main catalysts are the final line-up cards, any late pitching change, and whether Detroit protects its healthier run of form with the same core bats that have driven this matchup, including Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler.[3] Injury monitoring also matters: CBS listed Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe among the Tigers’ unavailable pitchers, and Jobe was not expected back until mid-August, which affects rotation depth rather than this specific game directly.[9] On the Athletics’ side, the biggest read-through is whether their struggling pitching holds up after recent heavy losses and whether their offence can convert a season-long home-run profile into runs against a staff that has already handled them well.[3][4]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $258K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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