Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| NRFI | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 8.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 11% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Kansas City Royals travel to Detroit on 24 July for an evening fixture against the Tigers, with the 30% implied probability favouring the hosts. Both clubs occupy the lower half of their respective divisions as of mid-July, though Kansas City has shown marginal improvement in recent weeks following a sluggish start. Detroit's pitching depth has been tested by injuries, whilst the Royals' lineup remains inconsistent despite flashes of offensive competence. The Tigers' home record typically provides modest advantage in July matchups, historically worth 3–4 percentage points in win probability across comparable AL Central contests.
Traders should monitor roster updates through 23 July, particularly any late-inning bullpen availability for either side. The Tigers' starting rotation has rotated through several arms due to injury management, and confirmation of Detroit's game-day starter will materially shift expectations—a quality starter could push the Tigers' probability 5–8 points higher. Kansas City's recent form against left-handed pitchers warrants attention if Detroit counters with a southpaw. Weather conditions at Comerica Park on 24 July may favour fly-ball outcomes; temperature and wind direction historically influence run-scoring patterns in this venue. Beat reporters covering both clubs should clarify any last-minute roster moves or coaching adjustments by game time, as the settlement window extends to 31 July to accommodate potential postponements.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $84K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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