New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Detroit Tigers tonight at Comerica Park in Detroit, with the game scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM ET. The market currently assigns a 14% probability to the Yankees winning, implying a heavy expectation that the Tigers will secure the victory despite the Yankees' historical stature. This low figure suggests the market views the Tigers as the clear favourite, potentially influenced by recent form or specific team dynamics favouring the home side.

Historically, such a skewed probability for a Yankees win in a single game against a mid-tier opponent like the Tigers is rare, as the Yankees typically command higher win expectations even in away fixtures. Comparable cases where the Yankees were priced below 20% usually involved significant key absences, such as a star pitcher being unavailable or a prolonged slump in batting form. The current pricing mirrors scenarios where the visiting team has suffered a recent series loss, as noted in pre-game analysis indicating the Yankees are travelling after a series defeat, which often erodes confidence in their immediate performance [8].

Traders should monitor the final pitching line-up announcements before the 6:40 PM start, as the absence of a top-tier Yankees starter would further validate the low win probability. Recent data shows the under is 6-4 in the last ten Yankees games as favourites, suggesting a potential trend of defensive struggles or lower scoring that could impact the game outcome [5]. Additionally, the Tigers' record as underdogs, with the under hitting 3-2 in their last five such games, indicates a pattern of tight, low-scoring contests that may favour the home team's defensive setup [5]. Any delay in the game or change in weather conditions could also shift the settlement dynamics, given the market's clause for postponements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.