Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers | 35% |
| O/U 8.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Extra Innings | 11% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 6% |
| NRFI | 0% |
Market context
The Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers face off tonight at Comerica Park in a pivotal MLB matchup, with the Tigers aiming to complete a three-game series sweep. The Athletics, sitting 41-51 and fourth in the AL West, have lost five consecutive games, allowing six or more runs in each defeat, while the Tigers (42-50, fourth in the AL Central) have won seven of their last eight outings and currently hold a four-game winning streak [1][2].
Historically, teams on a four-game winning streak with strong recent run-line coverage, like the Tigers, have resolved as favourites in roughly 65% of comparable mid-season matchups against opponents trailing after three innings in four straight night games, a pattern the Athletics have recently exhibited [2]. The crowd-implied 44% probability for the Athletics reflects their underdog resilience in five of their last six games as underdogs against AL Central opponents following road losses, yet this is outweighed by the Tigers’ dominance in leading after five innings in 10 of their last 11 games against American League opponents [2].
Traders should monitor the starting pitchers’ recent form: Perkins (Athletics) has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his last five outings, while Valdez (Tigers) has surrendered four or more in three of his last five starts [2][3]. Key absences also loom, including Gleyber Torres (oblique) and Brent Rooker (knee) on the injured lists, which may further tilt offensive output [3]. The Tigers’ home record (25-21) versus the Athletics’ road struggles (22-23) remains a critical dependency as the game unfolds [2].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $500K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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