Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 76% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 53% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| O/U 227.5 | 52% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 230.5 | 44% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 233.5 | 38% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 30% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 239.5 | 26% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Market context
Rockets vs. Spurs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 36% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T01:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $83K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Rockets vs. Spurs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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