Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 88% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 2.5 | 70% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 59% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 49% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 37% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 2% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Djurgårdens IF face Halmstads BK in an Allsvenskan fixture at 1:00 PM ET on 13 July, with the crowd pricing a specific “more markets” outcome at 59% YES. Historical head-to-head data strongly favours the hosts, who have won 22 of 41 direct meetings against Halmstads, averaging 2.65 total goals per match in these encounters [6]. Over the last five Allsvenskan outings involving Djurgårdens, the over-2.5-goals outcome has landed in every game, while the team has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four league matches [2]. This pattern of high-scoring, leaky-defence home games frames the 59% probability as consistent with Djurgårdens’ recent trend rather than an outlier.
Key absences and form shifts are the immediate catalysts for traders. Mikael Marques and Andre Boman are suspended for Djurgårdens, potentially weakening their defensive structure ahead of a match where they have already conceded in four consecutive league games [2]. Halmstads have failed to score in twice of their last three away league matches, yet their offensive contribution remains a variable given Djurgårdens’ inability to shut out opponents [2][10]. Beat-reporter analysis from Football Whispers highlights Kristian Lien as a scoring catalyst, noting four goals in his last six appearances including a brace against Hacken [2]. Traders should monitor the official lineup announcement shortly before kick-off for any additional suspensions or tactical shifts that could alter goal expectations.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Djurgardens IF vs. Halmstads BK - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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