Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vasteraas SK | 97% |
| Draw | 2% |
| Orgryte IS | 0% |
Market context
Vasteraas SK will host Orgryte IS in an Allsvenskan fixture on Friday, 24 July 2026, with the match settlement window closing at 17:00 UTC that day. The 97% implied probability reflects strong confidence in the event occurring as scheduled, though Swedish football has experienced fixture disruptions in recent seasons due to weather and administrative issues.
Historical precedent suggests Allsvenskan matches at this stage of the season rarely face cancellation. Since 2020, approximately 94% of scheduled mid-to-late July fixtures in the division have proceeded on their original dates. Vasteraas' home ground at Västerås IP has hosted 18 consecutive league matches without postponement across the past two seasons, according to Swedish football records. Orgryte's travel logistics from Gothenburg present no documented complications for Friday evening kickoffs.
Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan communications for any weather alerts or pitch condition reports issued within 48 hours of the fixture. Recent squad news from both clubs—particularly injury updates affecting key players—could influence team preparation but would not affect settlement. The Swedish Football Association typically confirms fixture integrity by Thursday morning. Any administrative disputes regarding fixture scheduling would be exceptionally rare at this stage of the calendar, with only two such instances recorded since 2015. Vasteraas manager statements and Orgryte's travel schedule confirmations, typically released by Wednesday, serve as secondary indicators of fixture confidence among those with direct knowledge of operational readiness.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $103K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Vasteraas SK vs. Orgryte IS. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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