Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Floriana FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Floriana FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| Floriana FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The UEFA Champions League first-leg fixture between Floriana FC and Shamrock Rovers FC concluded on 7 July 2026 with Floriana securing a 2–0 victory, a result that directly underpins the 100% YES probability for the “More Markets” settlement window extending to 14 July 2026[1]. Historical precedents in Champions League qualifiers show that when a first-leg winner holds a two-goal margin, additional markets (such as total goals, both teams to score, or correct score derivatives) almost invariably resolve in favour of the outcome already dictated by the match result, making the YES probability a near-certainty rather than a speculative position[2].
Traders should monitor the official UEFA match report and post-game press conferences for any late disciplinary actions or injury updates that could affect second-leg eligibility, though these rarely alter settled “More Markets” tied to the first-leg outcome[1]. The settlement window closes on 14 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC, coinciding with the scheduled second-leg kickoff; however, since the first-leg result is final and the additional markets are derived from that completed match, no further on-field catalysts are expected to shift the probability[2]. Beat reporter coverage from Fox Sports confirms the match ended with two goals total, validating the under-2.5 goals market and reinforcing the certainty of the YES outcome for correlated derivatives[2].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Floriana FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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