UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Allan Nascimento’s flyweight meeting with Mitch Raposo is set for the UFC’s June 20 Fight Night prelims in Las Vegas, and the market’s 0% yes price reflects how late this bout has been moved and how little room remains before settlement. The UFC previously shifted the pairing after Raposo’s illness removed it from an earlier card, which is relevant because this sort of scheduling disruption can leave traders exposed to another late withdrawal, catchweight wrinkle, or no-contest risk right up to fight night.[2][3]

The historical frame still leans towards Nascimento on form: he entered this matchup on a four-fight UFC winning run, including a submission of Cody Durden that earned a Performance of the Night bonus, while Raposo was 1-2 in the promotion and coming off a bounce-back win after a difficult start.[2] BetMGM also had Nascimento priced as the favourite at -180 against Raposo at +145, which is consistent with a market expecting the more established grappler to control more of the fight, even if Raposo’s speed and boxing give him a live decision route.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: any UFC official bout update, late medical change, or further card reshuffle would matter more than generic hype. The best recent signal is that the UFC itself confirmed the move to the June 20 card, but Raposo’s earlier illness shows the pairing has already been vulnerable to disruption.[3] With the market settling from official UFC results, the main dependency is simply whether both men make the cage and get scored to a clear winner.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.