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UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)

"UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)" — live sports odds and platform comparison.

Fight won by submission? 99% O/U 0.5 Rounds 51% O/U 1.5 Rounds 50% Bonfim to win by KO/TKO? 47% Volume: $748K Liquidity: $34K Closes: 26 Jul 2026
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UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
99% 1% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
99% 1% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Fight won by submission?99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds51%
O/U 1.5 Rounds50%
Bonfim to win by KO/TKO?47%
Sola to win by KO/TKO?47%
Fight won by KO/TKO?5%
O/U 2.5 Rounds2%
Fight to Go the Distance?1%
Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 99% probability to ufc fight night: ismael bonfim vs. axel sola (lightweight, prelims). This market will resolve to "Ismael Bonfim" if Ismael Bonfim is officially declared the winner of the fight against Axel Sola at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Fight won by submission? at 99% for "UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)".

Fight won by submission? 99% Other 1%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $748K.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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