UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)

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Market context

Nazim Sadykhov and Matheus Camilo are set to collide in a lightweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres in Baku tonight, with the fight scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM UTC. The market currently implies a 0% probability that Sadykhov will win, a stark reflection of the live outcome where Camilo stopped Sadykhov in the first round via TKO, as confirmed by official UFC footage [1]. This result overturns pre-fight expectations that favoured Sadykhov, who entered with a record of 11–2–1 and was priced at -175 to win outright [2][4].

Historically, such a complete reversal from pre-fight odds to a first-round stoppage is rare but not unprecedented in elite MMA, often occurring when a fighter’s defensive flaws are exposed by a superior striking opponent. Comparable cases include fights where a highly-touted contender is eliminated early due to a single tactical error, rendering pre-match probabilities meaningless once the action begins. The 0% market figure aligns with the definitive nature of a TKO loss, which leaves no room for a draw or technical ambiguity, unlike contests that end in draws or no-contests where markets default to 50-50.

Traders should monitor the official UFC resolution source for any post-fight administrative changes, though the TKO result is already settled [1]. Key dependencies include the formal declaration of the winner by the referee and the UFC’s official record update, which will confirm Camilo as the victor. No further announcements are expected, as the fight has concluded, and the settlement window remains open until 2026-06-28T03:59:59.999Z to allow for final verification [6]. The market’s outcome is now fixed, with Camilo officially declared the winner.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.