UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shane Collins and Otari Tanzilovi are scheduled to meet on the prelims at UFC Fight Night, a matchup that has been priced as a close featherweight debut-style fight rather than a proven UFC form line. Pre-fight previews described Collins as the more established undefeated side of the pairing and initially made him the betting favourite, while Tanzilovi was framed as the harder-hitting underdog with the stronger knockout profile.[2][6]

The **0% YES** crowd price is easier to understand if this is read through market timing rather than fight quality. The bout was already lined up for 20 June, and at least one bout tracker recorded a unanimous decision win for Collins on the scheduled date, which would normally leave little room for an alternate winner once official UFC results are posted.[3] For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: an official UFC result, any late change to the bout status, or a rare scoring issue such as a no contest or cancellation, since those are the paths that can still force the market into a non-standard resolution.[3][4]

What matters most for live read-throughs is whether either camp enters with late notice disruption or a last-minute replacement, because that tends to matter more in short-notice prelim fights than broader ranking context. The available pre-fight coverage did not indicate a coaching change or injury-led withdrawal for either side, so the cleanest comparison remains debutant volatility: Collins’ undefeated record and jab-led style versus Tanzilovi’s knockout reputation and one prior defeat.[1][2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.