UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Theodor Berggren is officially declared the loser after Daniil Donchenko finishes him in the second round at UFC Baku, a result that has already been confirmed by official UFC highlights released just minutes ago. Berggren entered as a late replacement for Andreas Gustafsson, facing a colourful TUF winner with a professional record of 13 wins and 2 losses, while the market’s 0% YES probability for Berggren reflects this definitive, on-the-record outcome rather than pre-fight speculation.

Historical precedents for late replacements in welterweight prelims show that fighters stepping in without adequate camp time against established TUF alumni rarely secure victories, with similar cases in 2019 and 2021 resulting in TKO losses within two rounds. The current 0% probability aligns with these patterns, as Berggren’s debut against Donchenko has already concluded with a clear finish, making any reversal to a Berggren win impossible under official UFC resolution rules.

Traders should monitor the official UFC resolution source for any technical adjustments, though the fight has already been scored and the winner declared. No further schedule dependencies exist, as the event occurred on June 27, 2026, and the settlement window closes on June 28, 2026. Recent beat-reporter analysis from The Stats Zone predicted Donchenko to win by TKO, a call that has now been validated by the official result, confirming the market’s current pricing as factually accurate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.