Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs JD Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-4.5) vs JD Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs JD Gaming (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-4.5) vs JD Gaming (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-5.5) vs JD Gaming (+5.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs JD Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-4.5) vs JD Gaming (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-5.5) vs JD Gaming (+5.5) | 0% |
Market context
EDward Gaming defeated JD Gaming 2-0 in their VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha best-of-three match on 19 July, confirming the 100% YES crowd-implied probability for EDG winning this fixture [1][4]. Historical precedents in this regional league show that teams capturing prior stage titles, like EDG who won Stage 1, maintain a significant edge over opponents with 0-3 group records and recent roster instability [2]. While JDG previously secured a 2-0 victory against EDG at the China Evolution Series, the current form gap is stark, with EDG holding world ranking 16 compared to JDG’s 88, and JDG having parted ways with key player Stew ahead of this split [2][7].
Traders should monitor official VCT China announcements for any post-match procedural reviews, though the match result is already settled as a 2-0 EDG win [1]. The primary catalyst for this market’s resolution was the match completion itself; since EDG won decisively without cancellation, tie, or seven-day delay, the market resolves strictly to EDward Gaming [2]. No further roster announcements or schedule dependencies will alter the outcome, as the settlement window closes on 19 July with the result confirmed by live score data [1][8]. Strafe users and bookmakers both heavily favoured EDG prior to the match, with 89.4% of community votes and odds of 1.24 reflecting this dominance [5][6].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: EDward Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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