Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5) | 80% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs Team Envy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 21% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 20% |
| Match Winner | 9% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 34.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
Market context
Team Envy’s meeting with FURIA Esports in VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha has the profile of a side-market priced around early-stage disappointment rather than a fully established mismatch. Envy were beaten 2-0 by Leviatán earlier in the stage and have been described in results coverage as sitting last in Alpha, with a 0-3 match record and a heavy negative round differential; FURIA have also started slowly, including a 0-2 loss to NRG and an 0-3 standing in the same group.[7][10] That shared form makes the crowd-implied 0% YES look less like a pure read on relative strength and more like a statement that the market has already anchored on FURIA’s upside, especially given preview data showing Envy’s recent results have been poor across both map scoreline and round differential.[4][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation that the series actually starts on schedule, any pre-match roster or substitute news, and whether either team has addressed the problems visible in recent group play. The fixture was listed for 5:00 PM EDT on Saturday, 1 August, with the broader VCT Americas schedule also placing it in Week 3 Group Alpha.[2][10] If there are last-minute changes to line-ups, illness, technical pauses, or a revised broadcast start, those matter because this market settles on the completed match outcome and turns 50-50 if the game is not played, ends level, or is pushed beyond the seven-day window without a winner.[3]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Envy vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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