Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 99% |
| O/U 161.5 | 55% |
| O/U 162.5 | 53% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
Market context
Market consensus: 99% chance of golden state valkyries vs. atlanta dream. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 4 at 1:00PM ET: If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries". If the Atlanta Dream win, the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $185K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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