New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the WNBA matchup between the New York Liberty and Seattle Storm scheduled for 25 June at 10:00PM ET, where the market resolves to the winner based on the final score including overtime. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Liberty win is starkly low, yet historical head-to-head data shows the Storm have won 29 of 53 past encounters, averaging 78.3 points per game compared to the Liberty’s 73.9[8]. This long-term dominance frames the probability not as an anomaly but as a reflection of the Storm’s consistent ability to outperform the Liberty in direct contests, including a decisive 79–70 victory in July 2025 where Gabby Williams and Nneka Ogwumike each scored 15 or more points[1][4].

Traders should monitor pre-game announcements regarding key player availability, particularly Breanna Stewart’s status for the Liberty, as her absence in previous high-stakes games has correlated with reduced offensive output[3]. The Storm’s recent form includes a narrow 23–22 first-quarter lead in the opening minutes of this fixture, suggesting early momentum could be a critical catalyst[5]. Additionally, any updates on coaching adjustments or injury reports from beat reporters covering the WNBA will be essential, as the Liberty’s third-quarter collapse in their last meeting—where they scored only six points—highlighted a vulnerability that the Storm may exploit again[1]. With the settlement window ending 26 June 2026 at 02:00:00Z, timely information on these dependencies will determine whether the 0% probability holds or shifts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.