Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Toronto Tempo travel to Chicago on 27 May for a WNBA regular-season matchup against the Sky, with the settlement window closing the following day. The 100% implied probability reflects either an exceptionally lopsided expectation or a technical constraint within the market's design; historically, WNBA games between established franchises rarely settle at such extremes unless one team faces catastrophic roster depletion or the fixture carries negligible competitive stakes late in a season.

The Sky have cycled through coaching instability in recent seasons, whilst the Tempo represent a newer franchise still establishing baseline performance metrics. Injury reports become critical in the fortnight preceding tip-off; absences among Chicago's perimeter defenders or Toronto's ball-handlers could materially shift expected pace and spacing. Monitor official team announcements from both clubs' medical staff, typically released 48 hours before game time, alongside any late schedule adjustments that might affect travel logistics or player availability.

The settlement mechanism includes a 50-50 resolution if the fixture is cancelled outright with no rescheduling, though postponements leave the market open. Traders should track weather forecasts for the Chicago area and any league-wide scheduling disruptions that might cascade across the fixture calendar. Recent WNBA scheduling has proven resilient to cancellations, making that tail-risk scenario unlikely; the primary variable remains whether both rosters take the court at full or substantially diminished strength.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.