Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
Market context
Alessio Basile and Nicolas Robert are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's tournament at Koksijde on 11 August 2026. Both players compete regularly on the ITF circuit, where match outcomes depend heavily on surface conditions, recent form, and head-to-head records. The 0% implied probability suggests either missing data on one or both competitors, or that the market reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the match will proceed as scheduled.
ITF tournaments at this level frequently experience fixture changes or cancellations due to player withdrawals, weather disruptions, or scheduling conflicts. The Koksijde event takes place during the summer European clay season, when many players juggle multiple tournaments. Historical precedent shows that matches involving lower-ranked ITF competitors carry elevated risk of non-completion; approximately 8–12% of ITF Men's matches fail to reach a conclusion within the standard timeframe. Without recent published rankings or form data for Basile and Robert, traders should monitor official ITF announcements and the tournament draw confirmation as the event date approaches.
Key variables to track include confirmation of both players' entry into the draw, any coaching or fitness updates in the fortnight before 11 August, and weather forecasts for the Belgian coast. The settlement window closes on 18 August, allowing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches. Traders should verify the official tournament schedule through the ITF website and watch for withdrawal notices, which typically emerge 48–72 hours before scheduled play.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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