Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 84% |
| Game 1 Winner | 77% |
| Game 2 Winner | 76% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 58% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 42% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 42% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 41% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 35% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 30% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 30% |
Market context
Gen.G and JD Gaming face off in the League of Legends Quarterfinal 3 of the Esports World Cup Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 9:30AM ET on 17 July. The 77% crowd-implied probability favouring Gen.G aligns with their dominant 3-0 head-to-head record against JDG from March’s First Stand event, where the Korean side dismantled their opponents in under 30 minutes per game[5][7]. Historical precedent in this matchup suggests a strategic edge for Gen.G, though their recent 3-2 loss to T1 in June reveals vulnerability in extended macro games against elite opposition[3].
Traders should monitor official roster announcements and patch updates, as Gen.G’s current 100% win rate last month contrasts with JDG’s rising tournament momentum at 67%[3]. Key dependencies include the resolution source at gol.gg, which must publish final results within two hours post-match to avoid consensus-based settlement[1]. Any delay beyond seven days without a winner triggers a 50-50 resolution, while a forfeiture during an incomplete match counts as a completed result[1]. JDG’s higher half-year earnings ($204k vs $125k) signal stronger high-stakes performance recently, despite their inconsistency against top-tier teams[3].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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