Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Atlanta Braves face the New York Mets on 13 June at 4:10 PM ET in a National League East divisional matchup. The settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for rescheduling should weather or other factors delay the fixture. The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptional confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity; historical precedent suggests such extreme readings often compress significantly once volume increases, particularly in regular-season baseball where home-field advantage and recent form typically drive modest edges rather than near-certainties.

The Braves enter the contest with stronger recent momentum, having won their last three series against divisional opponents. Atlanta's rotation features established starters with lower ERA figures this season compared to New York's current pitching depth, which has been depleted by injuries. The Mets' bullpen usage remains elevated following a stretch of close games, potentially affecting availability for relief arms. Tracking pre-game roster announcements—particularly any last-minute absences or roster moves—will be critical, as both teams manage mid-June fatigue and injury management.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts for the Atlanta area through 13 June, as afternoon thunderstorms are common and could trigger postponement. Recent reporting from MLB beat writers indicates the Braves' outfield depth has improved following a mid-May acquisition, whilst the Mets have not made corresponding roster adjustments. Home-field advantage at Truist Park historically favours Atlanta by approximately 3–4 percentage points in win probability, a factor often underweighted in extreme probability readings.

Methodology

We track Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.