Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs versus New York Mets MLB game, originally scheduled for Monday 22 June at 7:10PM ET, was postponed due to heavy rain and will be played as a split doubleheader on Wednesday at Citi Field[1][2]. This weather disruption creates a unique settlement window where the market remains open until the game is completed, with a 50-50 resolution only if the match is cancelled entirely or ends in a tie[2].

Historically, similar mid-week postponements in June have skewed probabilities by 5–8% when starting pitchers are pushed back, as seen when the Cubs were rained out twice consecutively earlier this month[2][4]. The Cubs, despite a 40-37 record, have lost 13 of 25 games since early May after a strong 27-12 start, while the Mets (34-43) have lost seven of their last 12 and were outscored 21-5 in Philadelphia over the weekend[2][4]. The current 45% YES probability for the Cubs aligns with their recent six-of-nine win rate but ignores the Mets’ vulnerability without Francisco Lindor, who is on a minor league rehab game today[2].

Traders must monitor the activation status of Lindor, whose strained calf could force the Mets to start a replacement shortstop, and confirm the pitching rotation for the doubleheader, as Kodai Senga (0-5, 9.00 ERA) and Shota Imanaga (4-6, 4.26) were the original starters[2][4]. The Cubs have not yet decided on their second pitcher for the doubleheader, and any delay in finalising the lineup could further impact the odds[4]. Watch for official announcements from the Mets regarding Lindor’s activation after Tuesday’s rehab game, as his absence significantly weakens their defensive stability[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.