Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to Queens to face the New York Mets on 31 May in an afternoon fixture at 1:40 PM ET. The 42% implied probability for a Marlins victory reflects the Mets' status as home favourites, though the gap remains modest enough to suggest meaningful uncertainty about the outcome.

Recent form has favoured New York. The Mets entered late May with a winning record and have benefited from more consistent offensive production, whilst Miami has struggled with inconsistency typical of a rebuilding roster. However, the Marlins' pitching depth occasionally produces strong individual performances that can neutralise stronger lineups. Historical matchups between these division rivals show the Mets hold a slight edge in head-to-head records, but single-game variance remains high in baseball. The crowd probability of 42% for Miami aligns with typical market pricing for a visiting team facing a stronger home side, suggesting traders have not identified a significant edge either direction.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically become official 24 to 48 hours before first pitch. Injury updates on key position players—particularly any late absences from either lineup—could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at Citi Field on game day may also influence play, especially if wind patterns favour either team's hitting profile. Recent beat reporting from SNY and MLB.com should clarify any roster changes or tactical adjustments from either dugout heading into the fixture.

Methodology

We track Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.