Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pirates and Cardinals meet again in St Louis after a lopsided 7-0 Pittsburgh win on Wednesday, a result that evened the series and underlined how volatile this matchup has been in May. St Louis had just beaten Pittsburgh 10-5 on 30 April, and the recent head-to-head record has swung quickly rather than following the broader crowd view. A 28% implied chance on Pittsburgh fits a team that has still been inconsistent away from home, but the latest shutout is a reminder that short-run pitching outcomes can move this kind of market sharply.

What matters most for the rematch is the starting pitching confirmation and whether either bullpen is carrying over fatigue from the first two games of the set. Pittsburgh’s offence has been boosted by Konnor Griffin, Nick Gonzales and Endy Rodríguez in the series, while the Cardinals will be looking to reset after being held scoreless on Wednesday. The official team line-ups, late scratch news and any pitching-change updates will be the main catalysts before first pitch. Recent game coverage from MLB’s official score pages and highlight reports is the clearest public source for changes in form and availability.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.