Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami and Philadelphia meet on 24 May 2026 in a regular-season MLS fixture. The 47% implied probability for a Miami victory reflects a competitive matchup between two Eastern Conference sides with divergent trajectories heading into late May.

Miami's form through spring 2026 has been uneven, with the club managing inconsistent results despite retaining its core attacking talent. Philadelphia, conversely, has stabilised under their current setup and typically performs well at home; the Union's record in May fixtures over the past three seasons shows they've won approximately 55% of their matches during that month. Historical head-to-head records between these franchises lean slightly towards parity, with neither side commanding a decisive advantage in recent seasons. The 47% probability suggests the market views this as a toss-up with marginal lean towards the away side, a positioning consistent with Miami's slight edge in individual player quality offset by Philadelphia's recent consistency.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week prior regarding injury status, particularly any absences from Miami's attacking contingent or Philadelphia's defensive unit. Fixture congestion—whether either side has played midweek fixtures immediately before 24 May—will affect available squad rotation. Weather conditions at the Union's venue, historically a factor in May matches in the Northeast, merit attention. Recent MLS standings updates and any managerial statements about tactical approach in the fortnight before kick-off will signal shifting confidence levels.

Methodology

We track Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.